Counterinsurgency - David Kilcullen

Title: Counterinsurgency

Author: David Kilcullen

ISBN: 978-0-199-73749-9

Publisher: Oxford UP

Year: 2010

Softcover

Pages: 251

Photos/maps: 7/1

Those of you actively involved in counterinsurgency operations are most likely to have heard about David Kilcullen. Both an experienced operator (infantry in East Timor, Indonesia as well as tours in Iraq and Afghanistan) as well as a renowned student of the insurgent/terrorism ‘art’ he has, in this book, put together a practical and common sense approach to tackling the challenges of insurgency and terrorism (he clearly delineates between the two) in different environments.  The book is a compilation of articles and concept papers that he has drafted based on firsthand experience, immediate debriefs with those involved in conflict, follow-on interviews with combatants from both sides as well as a deep engagement with local civilians.

His first chapter covers the 28 articles or ‘rules of thumb’ that a counterinsurgent must remember to maintain effectiveness. Based, very  loosely, as a companion piece to the original 27 articles of TE Lawrence (of WW1 Arabic uprising fame), it is updated and adjusted to reflect the realities of the modern counterinsurgent battle space. Each article is also preceded by an explanatory introduction that sets the stage for the focus of the article and provides for the reader the context within which to approach it. His points are succinct and eminently relevant and logical.

His next chapter discusses the value and merit of metrics. He acknowledges the critical requirement of being able to measure success (or failure); however, he posits that the traditional methods of measurement are not relevant or accurate to the asymmetric conflicts that we are engaged in. For example, the traditional body counts or military accessibility levels into regions do not provide for accurate measurements of enemy capability. Rather, he suggests that a series of non-traditional metrics based upon the four ‘pillars’ of counterinsurgency (the population, the supported government, the security forces and the enemy forces) should be adopted. Examples that he provides are not exhaustive but do adjust the paradigm of the reader into a more correct avenue. Things such as: price of exotic vegetables, tax collection or participation in sponsored programs can act as indicators for population stability, Government Indicators: where officials sleep, capital flight, rate of budget execution; Security Forces: ratio of guilty to innocent detainees, ratio of kills to wounds/captures, night operations and, finally, Enemy Forces: Insurgents villages of origin, insurgent medical health, price of black market guns and ammunition and midlevel insurgent casualties.

In the following chapters he discusses the success of the Indonesian forces in suppressing the West Java insurgents in the late 1950’s and how the tactics used so successfully there were a failure when it came to East Timor (and why). This chapter is extremely interesting as it reinforces the importance of appreciating how there is no standard solution to an insurgency that can be applied universally. Changes in motivation, geography and technology (to name a few) can have profound effects upon the methodology best suited to countering it. The Indonesian example is particularly relevant when viewed from the perspective of the impact of world opinion on the activities of Indonesian security forces in East Temor mirroring the of ‘media’ and communication technology as a factor (both positive and negative) on operations.

He next discusses the environment within which insurgencies are able to flourish. He postulates that identifying regions as being pro-government or pro-insurgent is missing the fundamental truth that populations seek security, predictability and stability and they will follow whatever group or organization that can guarantee it locally. This is one of the main reasons for the frustrating tendency in Afghanistan for locals to ‘switch’ from government to Taliban and back. It is not loyalty; it is pragmatism that is their driving force. Thus it is that concurrent to an armed challenge of an insurgency, it is imperative that issues of poor governance, corruption and mismanagement amongst the governing body be addressed aggressively.

He concludes with an examination of the modern phenomenon of the global insurgency, its make-up, methods of operation, strengths and weaknesses.  Starting with an assessment of the differences between ’terrorism’ (seen today as synonymous with any act of violence against the government) and ‘insurgency’ he clearly delineates not only the difference between  two, but also, the forces behind them and the paradigm shift needed to address them effectively. He concludes with a discussion on the critical weaknesses of the global jihadist style movements and how best to exploit these weakness in the ‘competition for government’.

Kilcullen has a great wealth of experience to draw upon when contemplating these issues. There are those who would make the argument that much of what he writes is common sense and not new revelations. That may be; however, it is also true that while many of the successful techniques used against jihadist movements have been used in the past, it took much blood and treasure to begin applying the lessons of yesteryear. The shift in paradigm and approach to the modern global jihadist with its access to instantaneous communications requires not only a reinforcement of our previously learned but forgotten lessons, but  further enhancement to meet the unique challenges of today’s modern insurgent. Kilcullen’s book is an excellent place to further enhance that education.

The New Scramble for Africa - Padraig Carmody

Title: The New Scramble for Africa

Author: Padraig Carmody

ISBN: 978-0-7456-4785-2

Publisher: Polity Books

Year: 2011

Softcover

Pages: 244

Photographs/maps: 0

Africa is a continent that has almost unlimited potential. Rife with both resource and human capital, it has however been limited in its realization of said potential due to the legacy of colonialism, rampant and systemic corruption within a majority of its governments/institutions and a resulting failure to translate its resource based economy into manufacturing. African leadership and its wealthy elite, looking to draw financial advantage from the potential of their countries, have now embarked upon a comprehensive sacrifice of their nations' birthright through the selling off of their resources to resource hungry second and first world nations. Carmody's book has undertaken a study of the history, causes, effects and potential outcomes of this new pillaging of Africa at the hands of a few for greed and short term gain.

The author commences his review by setting the stage through an analysis of the history of Africa's engagement with the east and west. Following the end of colonialism, the continent was a battle ground of proxy wars between the West and Soviet Bloc. During this time, governments were supported not for their effectiveness but for their willingness to undertake operations for one side or the other. However, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, a gradual change transpired whereby western support and investment for governments became more closely aligned with accountability and transparency. Ironically, it was this insistence upon openness that created the opportunities for a resurgent Russia, emerging China and the EU to create markets for themselves. Unlike a majority of the west, which, concurrent with its demands for more accountability suffered a reduction in economic clout, cash rich China et al jumped into the breach with an approach that precluded any demand for change in the corrupt national leaderships. Their realpolitik approach sought advantage wherever it could be found for the betterment of their national goals. Carmody's overview of this is comprehensive and disturbing.

He then goes on to look in greater detail at the kinds of exploitation that are being undertaken with a specific emphasis on the role that China is now playing on the Continent. Attention is paid to the economic interests being sought after with a focus on timber, fishing, uranium, cobalt, food products, fuels and biopiracy. In each case, advantage is being taken over weak central governments and deep corruption in order to feed and furnish domestic demands. Carmody identifies not only the methods undertaken by these foreign powers but also the secondary and tertiary impacts on the African domestic markets and populations of these actions. As an example he discusses the impact of rampant illegal fishing within the EEZ of Somalia. Foreign factory fleets have, as a result of Somalia’s inability to enforce its territorial waters, been able to not only pillage this resource but also to undermine the domestic fishing industry of Somalia. Desperate fishermen have then turned to piracy to try and recoup their losses.

 Carmody's book is an extremely disturbing insight into the present day "Scramble for Africa" and its impact upon indigenous populations. Western powers especially are quick to jump on the symptoms of this malaise (such as piracy) but very slow to respond to the underlying causes of these behaviours. Well researched and logically presented, Carmody's book, while five years old, identifies the pattern that has been followed since then with predictable results. An extensive bibliography and notes section provide ample additional reading options.

Thieves of State - Sarah Chayes

This review has been submitted to The Journal of the RCAF

Title: Thieves of State

Author: Sarah Chayes

ISBN: 978-0-393-23946-1

Publisher: Norton

Year: 2015

Hardcover

Pages: 262

Photos/Maps: 0/7

Media and Government attention, traditionally and more notably during the last 15 years, has been focused upon the economics and operational tactics of identified terrorist groups and their supporters. A phenomenal amount of military and economic resource has been brought to bear in an effort to crush these organizations. Notably missing from the dialogue however, has been attention to those governments whose actions have instigated, enabled and facilitated these activities. Nor does it appear that there is a clear understanding of the direct link between the corrupt practices of national leadership and an appreciation of its impact upon the ability of fringe organizations to advance their causes. Chayes’s book sheds a blinding light upon the clear connection between these activities, their impact and western government’s reluctance to acknowledge them.

Starting with a discussion of the writings of Locke, Milton, Nizam al-Mulk, Luther and Machiavelli (to name but a few) she looks at the repeated acknowledgement of the responsibility of leaders to their people; the so called ‘Mirrors of Princes’ treaties. These were texts emphasizing the critical necessity of leadership to be accountable to the people whom they lead (and the potential impacts if they are not followed). This book is not however, a dry political analysis; Chayes draws upon her 10 years of work in Afghanistan as a reporter, an entrepreneur and a foreign policy adviser to the US military in order to draft an accessible and eminently readable discussion of the endemic corruption of the Karzai government and the response of the US political and military establishments.

Her approach is not jaundiced but balanced and telling, and her examination of the issues and of the impact that pervasive corruption has upon the ability of fringe elements to recruit and operate, extremely effective. The author has broken out her analysis into distinctive methods or techniques of corruption; each having in common a “bottom up flow” of monies. Those practicing systemic corruption she identifies as ‘Kleptocracies’ further breaking them down into sub-categories such as: Resource, Post-Soviet, Bureaucratic, Military-Kleptocratic Complex and Vertically Integrated Criminal Syndicates. Each type is explained in detail with examples and facts.

Additionally, Chaye discusses how populations, denied access to legitimate forms of redress due to corrupt officials and entities, are left with no option but revolt as a means of addressing their grievances. Thus, groups such as Boko Haram (the name means roughly Western Education is Forbidden), initially a fringe, self-sustaining community was driven into armed rebellion by the unethical practices of the Nigerian police and bureaucracy. Their name was derived from the fact that Nigerians know their civil service to be absolutely corrupt and also that to get a job within said civil service one has to have a western style degree from a university. Thus irrespective of the logic of their belief, they have equated the corruption with not only the system of government but also the education needed to work within that system. It is critical to the determination of effective responses to these groups that the root causes of their formation be acknowledged and addressed as part of the solution.

Recognizing this, Chaye provides a series of practical actions that governments may take in order to influence the behaviours of corrupt regimes. These multi-faceted approaches run the gambit from aid and financially based approaches to diplomatic and business focused tactics. Unavoidable within these methodologies is the necessity to work in tandem with other nations to ensure a common front.   

While corruption is not the only element facilitating violence, it may certainly be grasped as a medium within which violent reaction amongst the people takes hold and flourishes. Chayes clearly illustrates that fighting fringe elements such as Al-Shabbab and Boko Haram is necessary, however, it is equally as critical to recognize these organizations as indicative of a much deeper malaise: corruption; to treat the symptoms without acknowledging the actual disease will never break the cycle. This book is vital to appreciating the scope and nature of corruption, the potential impact of not addressing it and also methodologies that may be exercised to counter it.